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Triglav vs Ruh Lviv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Triglav
Triglav
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
L. Susnjara 54'
V. Kholod 52' (OG)
R. Lyakh 12', 2'
2/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportski Centar Terme Čatež 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Triglav44%
×Draw22%
Ruh Lviv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triglav
1.94
Ruh Lviv
1.71

Triglav creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Triglav
2.29
Ruh Lviv
1.42

allows per match

Triglav
2.00
Ruh Lviv
1.58

finishing

Triglav+0.00on par
Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triglav ↓

Ruh Lviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Triglav or draw
65%
Triglav or Ruh Lviv
78%
Draw or Ruh Lviv
56%

Winning margin

Triglav wins by 2+
24%
Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Triglav 1+ goals
86%
Triglav 2+ goals
58%
Triglav 3+ goals
30%
Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
82%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
51%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Triglav (draw refunded)
56%
Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triglav at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triglav attack 2.29 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ruh Lviv attack 1.42 + Triglav defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Triglav scores more
44%
level
22%
Ruh Lviv scores more
35%

Triglav at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
R. Lyakh
12'
R. Lyakh
52'
V. KholodOwn goal
54'
L. Susnjara
65'
Triglav
Ruh
D. Matić
Manager: D. Matić
Ivan Fedyk
Manager: Ivan Fedyk

Match Recap: Triglav vs Ruh Lviv

Triglav and Ruh Lviv drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 12, 2025.

Goals: R. Lyakh (2', 12'), V. Kholod (52' o.g.), L. Susnjara (54').

The match was played at Sportski Centar Terme Čatež 3 in Čatež ob Savi.