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Rukh Vynnyky vs Triglav — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rukh Vynnyky
Rukh Vynnyky
FT
1 – 0
Triglav
Triglav
2/23/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky56%
×Draw22%
Triglav22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky
1.94
Triglav
1.14

Rukh Vynnyky creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky
1.87
Triglav
1.00

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky
1.27
Triglav
2.00

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.00on par
Triglav+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Triglav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw
78%
Rukh Vynnyky or Triglav
78%
Draw or Triglav
44%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+
33%
Triglav wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals
86%
Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals
58%
Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals
30%
Triglav 1+ goals
68%
Triglav 2+ goals
32%
Triglav 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)
72%
Triglav (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Triglav away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.87 + Triglav defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Triglav attack 1.00 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more
56%
level
22%
Triglav scores more
22%

Rukh Vynnyky at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Rukh Vynnyky 1–0 Triglav

Rukh Vynnyky beat Triglav 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.