Triglav 2–1 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Triglav

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fužinar

G. Gibson 88'

J. Čadež 58'

M. Kvesić 90+3'

10/8/2023

2. SNL · Round 12Športni Center Stanko Mlakar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Triglav53%

×Draw22%

Fužinar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TriglavExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.24

Triglav

1.91

Fužinar

1.24

Triglav creates 54% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 64 away

1.98

creates per match

1.36

1.12

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Triglav

1.98

Fužinar

1.36

allows per match

Triglav

1.12

Fužinar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Triglav+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triglav ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Triglav or draw

75%

Triglav or Fužinar

78%

Draw or Fužinar

47%

Winning margin

Triglav wins by 2+

30%

Fužinar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Triglav 1+ goals

85%

Triglav 2+ goals

57%

Triglav 3+ goals

30%

Fužinar 1+ goals

71%

Fužinar 2+ goals

35%

Fužinar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Triglav (draw refunded)

68%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triglav at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triglav attack 1.98 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Triglav defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Triglav scores more

53%

level

22%

Fužinar scores more

25%

Triglav at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

J. Čadež

68'

N. Ljubijankić← S. Petrović

68'

D. Adrović← M. Carl

68'

M. Hovnik← R. Morariu

81'

M. Kvesić← C. Kitek

84'

G. Gaberšek Rotovnik← M. Bajraj

88'

G. O. Gibson

88'

G. Gibson

90+3'

M. Kvesić

Triglav

Fužinar

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Kondić

68'▲N. Ljubijankić←▼S. Petrović

Triglav substitutes

LjubijankićRantJemecSpaićKukavicaMalnar

Manager: M. Bukovec

68'▲D. Adrović←▼M. Carl

68'▲M. Hovnik←▼R. Morariu

81'▲M. Kvesić←▼C. Kitek

84'▲G. Gaberšek Rotovnik←▼M. Bajraj

Fužinar substitutes

AdrovićHovnikKvesićRotovnikDeronjaJahić

2. SNL: Triglav 2–1 Fužinar

Triglav beat Fužinar 2-1 in 2. SNL on October 8, 2023.

Goals: J. Čadež (58'), G. Gibson (88'), M. Kvesić (90+3').

The match was played at Športni Center Stanko Mlakar in Kranj.

Triglav vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Triglav 2–1 Fužinar