Fužinar 2–2 Triglav: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Fužinar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Triglav

D. Klinar 44'

B. Németh 21'

O. Kregar 18'

G. Gibson 6'

4/23/2023

2. SNL · Round 26Športni park Ugasle peči

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fužinar33%

×Draw25%

Triglav42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FužinarExpected goals in this matchTriglav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.55

Fužinar

1.36

Triglav

1.55

Triglav creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

1.62

creates per match

1.53

1.57

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fužinar

1.62

Triglav

1.53

allows per match

Fužinar

1.57

Triglav

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par

Triglav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Triglav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw

58%

Fužinar or Triglav

75%

Draw or Triglav

67%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+

15%

Triglav wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals

74%

Fužinar 2+ goals

39%

Fužinar 3+ goals

16%

Triglav 1+ goals

79%

Triglav 2+ goals

46%

Triglav 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)

44%

Triglav (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

Triglav away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.62 + Triglav defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Triglav attack 1.53 + Fužinar defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fužinar scores more

33%

level

25%

Triglav scores more

42%

Triglav at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

G. Gibson

18'

O. Kregar

21'

B. Németh

35'

I. Grozdek← D. Osmanović

44'

D. Klinar

53'

K. Irmančnik← D. Jozić

81'

B. Doiteau← Jimmy Mpanzu

90+1'

D. Lečnik Spaić← G. Gibson

90+1'

J. Dovžan← A. Alagić

90+1'

Y. El Khattabi← G. Schweiger

Fužinar

Triglav

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Božičevič

35'▲I. Grozdek←▼D. Osmanović

53'▲K. Irmančnik←▼D. Jozić

81'▲B. Doiteau←▼Jimmy Mpanzu

Fužinar substitutes

GrozdekIrmančnikDoiteauKotnik

Manager: M. Kondić

90+1'▲D. Lečnik Spaić←▼G. Gibson

90+1'▲J. Dovžan←▼A. Alagić

90+1'▲Y. El Khattabi←▼G. Schweiger

Triglav substitutes

SpaićDovžanKhattabiČadežKozić