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Trident vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Trident
Trident
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
2/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident27%
×Draw30%
Red Arrows43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trident
0.86
Red Arrows
1.17

Red Arrows creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Trident
0.82
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Trident
1.35
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Trident+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Trident or draw
57%
Trident or Red Arrows
70%
Draw or Red Arrows
73%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+
9%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals
58%
Trident 2+ goals
21%
Trident 3+ goals
6%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
69%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
33%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)
39%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trident scores more
27%
level
30%
Red Arrows scores more
43%

Red Arrows at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trident vs Red Arrows

Red Arrows beat Trident 1-0 in Super League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.