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Red Arrows vs Trident — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trident
Trident
9/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Red Arrows54%
×Draw28%
Trident18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.38
Trident
0.68

Red Arrows creates 103% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Trident
0.71

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Trident
1.24

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Trident+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Trident →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
82%
Red Arrows or Trident
72%
Draw or Trident
46%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
26%
Trident wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
75%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
40%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
16%
Trident 1+ goals
49%
Trident 2+ goals
15%
Trident 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
74%
Trident (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Trident away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Trident defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Trident attack 0.71 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Red Arrows scores more
54%
level
28%
Trident scores more
18%

Red Arrows at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Arrows vs Trident

Red Arrows beat Trident 2-0 in Super League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.