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Trident vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Trident
Trident
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
11/12/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident37%
×Draw29%
Prison Leopards34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trident
1.11
Prison Leopards
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Trident
0.82
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Trident
1.35
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Trident+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Trident or draw
66%
Trident or Prison Leopards
71%
Draw or Prison Leopards
63%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+
15%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals
67%
Trident 2+ goals
30%
Trident 3+ goals
10%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
65%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
29%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)
52%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trident scores more
37%
level
29%
Prison Leopards scores more
34%

Trident at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trident will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Trident 1–1 Prison Leopards

Trident and Prison Leopards drew 1-1 in Super League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.