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Prison Leopards vs Trident — Super League 2019

Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Trident
Trident
4/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29President Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Prison Leopards46%
×Draw31%
Trident23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prison Leopards
1.13
Trident
0.70

Prison Leopards creates 61% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Prison Leopards
1.02
Trident
0.71

allows per match

Prison Leopards
0.68
Trident
1.24

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par
Trident+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Trident →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw
77%
Prison Leopards or Trident
69%
Draw or Trident
54%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+
20%
Trident wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals
68%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
31%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
11%
Trident 1+ goals
50%
Trident 2+ goals
16%
Trident 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
67%
Trident (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Trident away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Trident defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Trident attack 0.71 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Prison Leopards scores more
46%
level
31%
Trident scores more
23%

Prison Leopards at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Prison Leopards 1–1 Trident

Prison Leopards and Trident drew 1-1 in Super League on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at President Stadium in Kabwe.