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Trident vs Green Eagles — Super League 2019

Trident
Trident
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Green Eagles
Green Eagles
4/4/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident29%
×Draw31%
Green Eagles40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trident
0.88
Green Eagles
1.10

Green Eagles creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Trident
0.82
Green Eagles
0.86

allows per match

Trident
1.35
Green Eagles
0.93

finishing

Trident+0.00on par
Green Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Green Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Trident or draw
60%
Trident or Green Eagles
69%
Draw or Green Eagles
71%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+
10%
Green Eagles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals
59%
Trident 2+ goals
22%
Trident 3+ goals
6%
Green Eagles 1+ goals
67%
Green Eagles 2+ goals
30%
Green Eagles 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)
42%
Green Eagles (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Green Eagles away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Green Eagles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Green Eagles attack 0.86 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trident scores more
29%
level
31%
Green Eagles scores more
40%

Green Eagles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Green Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Trident 4–1 Green Eagles

Trident beat Green Eagles 4-1 in Super League on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.