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Green Eagles vs Trident — Super League 2019

Green Eagles
Green Eagles
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Trident
Trident
10/28/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Eagles Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Green Eagles46%
×Draw30%
Trident24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Eagles
1.21
Trident
0.77

Green Eagles creates 57% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Green Eagles
1.18
Trident
0.71

allows per match

Green Eagles
0.84
Trident
1.24

finishing

Green Eagles+0.00on par
Trident+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Eagles ↓

Trident →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Green Eagles or draw
76%
Green Eagles or Trident
70%
Draw or Trident
54%

Winning margin

Green Eagles wins by 2+
21%
Trident wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Green Eagles 1+ goals
70%
Green Eagles 2+ goals
34%
Green Eagles 3+ goals
12%
Trident 1+ goals
54%
Trident 2+ goals
18%
Trident 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Green Eagles (draw refunded)
66%
Trident (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Eagles at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 111 matches

Trident away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Eagles attack 1.18 + Trident defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Trident attack 0.71 + Green Eagles defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Green Eagles scores more
46%
level
30%
Trident scores more
24%

Green Eagles at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Green Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Eagles 2–2 Trident

Green Eagles and Trident drew 2-2 in Super League on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Eagles Ground in Choma.