Triangle United 1–1 Ngezi Platinum: Result & Stats

Triangle United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ngezi Platinum

A. Zeka 90'

M. Makuwe 65'

7/19/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 21Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Triangle United39%

×Draw31%

Ngezi Platinum30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Triangle UnitedExpected goals in this matchNgezi Platinum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.88

Triangle United

1.06

Ngezi Platinum

0.88

Triangle United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 100 away

1.34

creates per match

0.87

0.89

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Triangle United

1.34

Ngezi Platinum

0.87

allows per match

Triangle United

0.89

Ngezi Platinum

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Ngezi Platinum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw

70%

Triangle United or Ngezi Platinum

69%

Draw or Ngezi Platinum

61%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+

16%

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals

65%

Triangle United 2+ goals

29%

Triangle United 3+ goals

9%

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals

59%

Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals

22%

Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)

57%

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 83 matches

Ngezi Platinum away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.34 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ngezi Platinum attack 0.87 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Triangle United scores more

39%

level

31%

Ngezi Platinum scores more

30%

Triangle United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

M. Makuwe

90'

A. Zeka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff