Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ngezi Platinum vs Triangle United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Triangle United
Triangle United
F. Madhanaga 70'
3/29/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Ngezi Platinum55%
×Draw27%
Triangle United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngezi Platinum
1.46
Triangle United
0.70

Ngezi Platinum creates 109% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 85 away

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum
1.60
Triangle United
0.74

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum
0.65
Triangle United
1.32

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par
Triangle United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Triangle United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw
82%
Ngezi Platinum or Triangle United
73%
Draw or Triangle United
45%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
28%
Triangle United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
77%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
43%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
18%
Triangle United 1+ goals
50%
Triangle United 2+ goals
16%
Triangle United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
76%
Triangle United (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.65 · 103 matches

Triangle United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.60 + Triangle United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Triangle United attack 0.74 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more
55%
level
27%
Triangle United scores more
18%

Ngezi Platinum at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
F. Madhanaga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Ngezi Platinum 1–0 Triangle United

Ngezi Platinum beat Triangle United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: F. Madhanaga (70').

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.