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Triangle United vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Triangle United
Triangle United
FT
5 – 2
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
5/15/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Triangle United49%
×Draw28%
Cranborne Bullets23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triangle United
1.32
Cranborne Bullets
0.80

Triangle United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 34 away

creates per match

Triangle United
1.32
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Triangle United
0.89
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw
77%
Triangle United or Cranborne Bullets
72%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
51%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+
23%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals
73%
Triangle United 2+ goals
38%
Triangle United 3+ goals
15%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
55%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
19%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)
68%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Triangle United scores more
49%
level
28%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
23%

Triangle United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Triangle United 5–2 Cranborne Bullets

Triangle United beat Cranborne Bullets 5-2 in Premier Soccer League on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.