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Cranborne Bullets vs Triangle United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Triangle United
Triangle United
11/4/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 30National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cranborne Bullets39%
×Draw33%
Triangle United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cranborne Bullets
0.98
Triangle United
0.79

Cranborne Bullets creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.65
Triangle United
0.66

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.91
Triangle United
1.30

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par
Triangle United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Triangle United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw
72%
Cranborne Bullets or Triangle United
67%
Draw or Triangle United
61%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
15%
Triangle United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
62%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
26%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
8%
Triangle United 1+ goals
55%
Triangle United 2+ goals
19%
Triangle United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
58%
Triangle United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Triangle United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Triangle United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.98

Triangle United attack 0.66 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more
39%
level
33%
Triangle United scores more
28%

Cranborne Bullets at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cranborne Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cranborne Bullets vs Triangle United

Cranborne Bullets beat Triangle United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.