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Tri-Cities vs Tobacco Road — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
4 – 4
Tobacco Road
Tobacco Road
7/9/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 13Kermit Tipton Stadium (Johnson City, TN)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities54%
×Draw20%
Tobacco Road26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
2.25
Tobacco Road
1.52

Tri-Cities creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
Tobacco Road
1.51

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
Tobacco Road
2.67

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
Tobacco Road+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Tobacco Road →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
74%
Tri-Cities or Tobacco Road
80%
Draw or Tobacco Road
46%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
33%
Tobacco Road wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
89%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
65%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
39%
Tobacco Road 1+ goals
78%
Tobacco Road 2+ goals
45%
Tobacco Road 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
68%
Tobacco Road (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Tobacco Road away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Tobacco Road defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Tobacco Road attack 1.51 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
54%
level
20%
Tobacco Road scores more
26%

Tri-Cities at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tri-Cities vs Tobacco Road

Tri-Cities and Tobacco Road drew 4-4 in USL League Two on July 9, 2019.

The match was played at Kermit Tipton Stadium (Johnson City, TN).