Tobacco Road 7–3 Tri-Cities: Result & Stats

Tobacco Road

FT

7 – 3

Tri-Cities

7/13/2019

USL League Two · Round 17Durham County Memorial Stadium (Durham, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tobacco Road34%

×Draw21%

Tri-Cities46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tobacco RoadExpected goals in this matchTri-Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.13

Tobacco Road

1.81

Tri-Cities

2.13

Tri-Cities creates 18% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

1.74

2.51

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Tobacco Road

1.79

Tri-Cities

1.74

allows per match

Tobacco Road

2.51

Tri-Cities

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tobacco Road+0.00on par

Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobacco Road ↓

Tri-Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Tobacco Road or draw

54%

Tobacco Road or Tri-Cities

79%

Draw or Tri-Cities

66%

Winning margin

Tobacco Road wins by 2+

17%

Tri-Cities wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tobacco Road 1+ goals

84%

Tobacco Road 2+ goals

54%

Tobacco Road 3+ goals

27%

Tri-Cities 1+ goals

88%

Tri-Cities 2+ goals

63%

Tri-Cities 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Tobacco Road (draw refunded)

42%

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobacco Road at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.51 · 43 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobacco Road attack 1.79 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + Tobacco Road defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tobacco Road scores more

34%

level

21%

Tri-Cities scores more

46%

Tri-Cities at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff