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Tri-Cities vs SC United Bantams — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
0 – 3
SC United Bantams
SC United Bantams
6/15/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 36TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities38%
×Draw23%
SC United Bantams39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.63
SC United Bantams
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
SC United Bantams
1.80

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
SC United Bantams
1.43

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

SC United Bantams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
61%
Tri-Cities or SC United Bantams
77%
Draw or SC United Bantams
62%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
19%
SC United Bantams wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
80%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
48%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
22%
SC United Bantams 1+ goals
81%
SC United Bantams 2+ goals
50%
SC United Bantams 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
49%
SC United Bantams (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

SC United Bantams away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + SC United Bantams defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

SC United Bantams attack 1.80 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
38%
level
23%
SC United Bantams scores more
39%

SC United Bantams at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SC United Bantams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tri-Cities 0–3 SC United Bantams

SC United Bantams beat Tri-Cities 3-0 in USL League Two on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.