SC United Bantams 1–0 Tri-Cities: Result & Stats

SC United Bantams

FT

1 – 0

Tri-Cities

6/4/2022

USL League Two · Round 24Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SC United Bantams46%

×Draw22%

Tri-Cities32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC United BantamsExpected goals in this matchTri-Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.59

SC United Bantams

1.96

Tri-Cities

1.59

SC United Bantams creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 19 away

2.07

creates per match

1.74

1.44

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

SC United Bantams

2.07

Tri-Cities

1.74

allows per match

SC United Bantams

1.44

Tri-Cities

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC United Bantams ↓

Tri-Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SC United Bantams or draw

68%

SC United Bantams or Tri-Cities

78%

Draw or Tri-Cities

54%

Winning margin

SC United Bantams wins by 2+

26%

Tri-Cities wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SC United Bantams 1+ goals

86%

SC United Bantams 2+ goals

58%

SC United Bantams 3+ goals

31%

Tri-Cities 1+ goals

80%

Tri-Cities 2+ goals

47%

Tri-Cities 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SC United Bantams (draw refunded)

59%

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC United Bantams at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC United Bantams attack 2.07 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + SC United Bantams defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SC United Bantams scores more

46%

level

22%

Tri-Cities scores more

32%

SC United Bantams at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC United Bantams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: SC United Bantams 1–0 Tri-Cities

SC United Bantams beat Tri-Cities 1-0 in USL League Two on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex in Columbia, South Carolina.

SC United Bantams vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: SC United Bantams 1–0 Tri-Cities