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Tri-Cities vs One Knoxville — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
One Knoxville
One Knoxville
6/7/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tri-Cities24%
×Draw22%
One Knoxville54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.27
One Knoxville
1.98

One Knoxville creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
One Knoxville
2.43

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
One Knoxville
0.71

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
One Knoxville+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

One Knoxville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
46%
Tri-Cities or One Knoxville
78%
Draw or One Knoxville
76%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
10%
One Knoxville wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
72%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
36%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
14%
One Knoxville 1+ goals
86%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
59%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
31%
One Knoxville (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

One Knoxville away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + One Knoxville defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

One Knoxville attack 2.43 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
24%
level
22%
One Knoxville scores more
54%

One Knoxville at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tri-Cities vs One Knoxville

One Knoxville beat Tri-Cities 4-0 in USL League Two on June 7, 2022.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.