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One Knoxville vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

One Knoxville
One Knoxville
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
5/17/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 6Lakeshore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

One Knoxville55%
×Draw21%
Tri-Cities24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

One Knoxville
2.03
Tri-Cities
1.26

One Knoxville creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

One Knoxville
2.22
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

One Knoxville
0.78
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw
76%
One Knoxville or Tri-Cities
79%
Draw or Tri-Cities
45%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+
33%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals
87%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
60%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
33%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
72%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
36%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)
70%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 2.22 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.03

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + One Knoxville defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

One Knoxville scores more
55%
level
21%
Tri-Cities scores more
24%

One Knoxville at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: One Knoxville vs Tri-Cities

One Knoxville beat Tri-Cities 1-0 in USL League Two on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at Lakeshore Park in Dalton, Georgia.