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Tri-Cities vs North Carolina II — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
3 – 1
North Carolina II
North Carolina II
6/30/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 40TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities44%
×Draw22%
North Carolina II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.94
North Carolina II
1.67

Tri-Cities creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
North Carolina II
1.81

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
North Carolina II
2.05

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
North Carolina II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

North Carolina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
66%
Tri-Cities or North Carolina II
78%
Draw or North Carolina II
56%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
25%
North Carolina II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
86%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
58%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
30%
North Carolina II 1+ goals
81%
North Carolina II 2+ goals
50%
North Carolina II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
57%
North Carolina II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

North Carolina II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + North Carolina II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.94

North Carolina II attack 1.81 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
44%
level
22%
North Carolina II scores more
34%

Tri-Cities at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tri-Cities 3 – 1 North Carolina II

Tri-Cities beat North Carolina II 3-1 in USL League Two on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.