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North Carolina II vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

North Carolina II
North Carolina II
FT
0 – 5
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
5/26/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

North Carolina II42%
×Draw22%
Tri-Cities36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina II
1.84
Tri-Cities
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 19 away

creates per match

North Carolina II
1.84
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

North Carolina II
1.68
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

North Carolina II+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina II ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

North Carolina II or draw
64%
North Carolina II or Tri-Cities
78%
Draw or Tri-Cities
58%

Winning margin

North Carolina II wins by 2+
22%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

North Carolina II 1+ goals
84%
North Carolina II 2+ goals
55%
North Carolina II 3+ goals
28%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
82%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
51%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

North Carolina II (draw refunded)
53%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina II attack 1.84 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + North Carolina II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

North Carolina II scores more
42%
level
22%
Tri-Cities scores more
36%

North Carolina II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "North Carolina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: North Carolina II 0–5 Tri-Cities

Tri-Cities beat North Carolina II 5-0 in USL League Two on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.