Tri-Cities 3–2 North Carolina Fusion

Tri-Cities

FT

3 – 2

North Carolina Fusion

6/23/2021

USL League Two · Round 34TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities31%

×Draw22%

North Carolina Fusion47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tri-CitiesExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Fusion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.96

Tri-Cities

1.56

North Carolina Fusion

1.96

North Carolina Fusion creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

1.82

creates per match

2.39

1.53

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Tri-Cities

1.82

North Carolina Fusion

2.39

allows per match

Tri-Cities

1.53

North Carolina Fusion

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par

North Carolina Fusion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

North Carolina Fusion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw

53%

Tri-Cities or North Carolina Fusion

78%

Draw or North Carolina Fusion

69%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+

15%

North Carolina Fusion wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals

79%

Tri-Cities 2+ goals

46%

Tri-Cities 3+ goals

21%

North Carolina Fusion 1+ goals

86%

North Carolina Fusion 2+ goals

58%

North Carolina Fusion 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)

40%

North Carolina Fusion (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

North Carolina Fusion away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + North Carolina Fusion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

North Carolina Fusion attack 2.39 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tri-Cities scores more

31%

level

22%

North Carolina Fusion scores more

47%

North Carolina Fusion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "North Carolina Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff