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North Carolina Fusion vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

North Carolina Fusion
North Carolina Fusion
FT
3 – 1
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
5/18/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 5Macpherson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

North Carolina Fusion52%
×Draw21%
Tri-Cities27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Fusion
2.10
Tri-Cities
1.46

North Carolina Fusion creates 44% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 19 away

creates per match

North Carolina Fusion
2.36
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

North Carolina Fusion
1.18
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

North Carolina Fusion+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Fusion ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

North Carolina Fusion or draw
73%
North Carolina Fusion or Tri-Cities
79%
Draw or Tri-Cities
48%

Winning margin

North Carolina Fusion wins by 2+
31%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Carolina Fusion 1+ goals
88%
North Carolina Fusion 2+ goals
62%
North Carolina Fusion 3+ goals
35%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
77%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
43%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Fusion (draw refunded)
66%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Fusion at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Fusion attack 2.36 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.10

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + North Carolina Fusion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Carolina Fusion scores more
52%
level
21%
Tri-Cities scores more
27%

North Carolina Fusion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "North Carolina Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: North Carolina Fusion 3–1 Tri-Cities

North Carolina Fusion beat Tri-Cities 3-1 in USL League Two on May 18, 2021.

The match was played at Macpherson Stadium in Greensboro, North Carolina.