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Tri-Cities vs Lionsbridge — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
0 – 2
Lionsbridge
Lionsbridge
6/4/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 17TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities27%
×Draw21%
Lionsbridge51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.48
Lionsbridge
2.09

Lionsbridge creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
Lionsbridge
2.65

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
Lionsbridge
1.14

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
Lionsbridge+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Lionsbridge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
49%
Tri-Cities or Lionsbridge
79%
Draw or Lionsbridge
73%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
12%
Lionsbridge wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
77%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
43%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
19%
Lionsbridge 1+ goals
88%
Lionsbridge 2+ goals
62%
Lionsbridge 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
35%
Lionsbridge (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Lionsbridge away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Lionsbridge defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lionsbridge attack 2.65 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
27%
level
21%
Lionsbridge scores more
51%

Lionsbridge at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lionsbridge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tri-Cities vs Lionsbridge

Lionsbridge beat Tri-Cities 2-0 in USL League Two on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.