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Lionsbridge vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

Lionsbridge
Lionsbridge
FT
1 – 3
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
7/3/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 9Pomoco Stadium (Newport News, Virginia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lionsbridge59%
×Draw19%
Tri-Cities22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lionsbridge
2.46
Tri-Cities
1.44

Lionsbridge creates 71% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lionsbridge
3.08
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

Lionsbridge
1.15
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

Lionsbridge+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lionsbridge ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lionsbridge or draw
78%
Lionsbridge or Tri-Cities
81%
Draw or Tri-Cities
41%

Winning margin

Lionsbridge wins by 2+
38%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lionsbridge 1+ goals
91%
Lionsbridge 2+ goals
70%
Lionsbridge 3+ goals
44%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
76%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
42%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lionsbridge (draw refunded)
73%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lionsbridge at home — creates 3.08, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lionsbridge attack 3.08 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.46

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + Lionsbridge defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lionsbridge scores more
59%
level
19%
Tri-Cities scores more
22%

Lionsbridge at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lionsbridge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lionsbridge vs Tri-Cities

Tri-Cities beat Lionsbridge 3-1 in USL League Two on July 3, 2019.

The match was played at Pomoco Stadium (Newport News, Virginia).