Treze 0–3 Central SC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Treze

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Central SC

Wellington Cezar 68'

Ze Artur 74'

Jo Santos 36' (pen), 5'

5/31/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Treze44%

×Draw30%

Central SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrezeExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.81

Treze

1.16

Central SC

0.81

Treze creates 43% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 37 away

1.36

creates per match

0.84

0.78

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Treze

1.36

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Treze

0.78

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treze+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treze ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Treze or draw

74%

Treze or Central SC

70%

Draw or Central SC

56%

Winning margin

Treze wins by 2+

19%

Central SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Treze 1+ goals

69%

Treze 2+ goals

32%

Treze 3+ goals

11%

Central SC 1+ goals

56%

Central SC 2+ goals

19%

Central SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Treze (draw refunded)

63%

Central SC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treze at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treze attack 1.36 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Central SC attack 0.84 + Treze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Treze scores more

44%

level

30%

Central SC scores more

26%

Treze at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Treze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Jo Santos

36'

Jo SantosPenalty

68'

Wellington Cezar

74'

Ze Artur

Treze

Central

⚽2

⚽

Manager: Marcelo Vilar

Treze substitutes

CesinhaSousaSchutzVanJuninhoAndradeBismarkCoutinhoFlavinhoLincolnHenriqueMaranguape

Manager: Leandro Sena

Central SC substitutes

FlávioJefinhoArturErivéltonFrankTanakaBennêSilvaEdyJanelsonNatanaelYago

Match Recap: Treze vs Central SC

Central SC beat Treze 3-0 in Serie D on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Jo Santos (5', 36' pen), Wellington Cezar (68'), Ze Artur (74').

The match was played at Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro in Campina Grande, Paraíba.

Treze vs Central SC — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Treze vs Central SC