Central SC 1–0 Treze: Result & Stats | Serie D

Central SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Treze

Ruan 45'

6/8/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Central SC42%

×Draw28%

Treze30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchTreze

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.05

Central SC

1.31

Treze

1.05

Central SC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 41 away

1.29

creates per match

1.39

0.71

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

Treze

1.39

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

Treze

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

Treze+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Treze →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

70%

Central SC or Treze

72%

Draw or Treze

58%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

19%

Treze wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

73%

Central SC 2+ goals

38%

Central SC 3+ goals

14%

Treze 1+ goals

65%

Treze 2+ goals

28%

Treze 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

59%

Treze (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Treze away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Treze defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Treze attack 1.39 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central SC scores more

42%

level

28%

Treze scores more

30%

Central SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Ruan

Central

Treze

Manager: Leandro Sena

Manager: Marcelo Vilar