Strumska Slava 1–3 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Strumska Slava

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Arda Kardzhali

12/8/2018

Second League · Round 17Gradski stadion (Radomir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Strumska Slava32%

×Draw29%

Arda Kardzhali39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strumska SlavaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.15

Strumska Slava

1.02

Arda Kardzhali

1.15

Arda Kardzhali creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

1.03

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Strumska Slava

1.17

Arda Kardzhali

1.27

allows per match

Strumska Slava

1.03

Arda Kardzhali

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strumska Slava ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Strumska Slava or draw

61%

Strumska Slava or Arda Kardzhali

71%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

68%

Winning margin

Strumska Slava wins by 2+

12%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Strumska Slava 1+ goals

64%

Strumska Slava 2+ goals

27%

Strumska Slava 3+ goals

8%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

68%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

32%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)

45%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strumska Slava at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strumska Slava attack 1.17 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Strumska Slava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Strumska Slava scores more

32%

level

29%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

39%

Arda Kardzhali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff