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Arda Kardzhali vs Strumska Slava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
1 – 1
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Terenite na Evima Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Arda Kardzhali60%
×Draw23%
Strumska Slava17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.79
Strumska Slava
0.82

Arda Kardzhali creates 118% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Strumska Slava
1.00

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.64
Strumska Slava
2.00

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
83%
Arda Kardzhali or Strumska Slava
77%
Draw or Strumska Slava
40%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
35%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
83%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
53%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
26%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
56%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
20%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
78%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.57 + Strumska Slava defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Strumska Slava attack 1.00 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
60%
level
23%
Strumska Slava scores more
17%

Arda Kardzhali at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arda Kardzhali vs Strumska Slava

Arda Kardzhali and Strumska Slava drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Terenite na Evima Futbol in Bansko.