Ludogorets II 3–2 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Ludogorets II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tsarsko Selo

G. Hashev 67' (OG)

D. Aleksandrov 48'

Lucas Sasha 47'

S. Dikov 75'

B. Katsarov 14'

4/7/2018

Second League · Round 23Sporten tsentar Ludogorets (Razgrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ludogorets II39%

×Draw24%

Tsarsko Selo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.48

Ludogorets II

1.55

Tsarsko Selo

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 23 away

1.84

creates per match

1.91

1.05

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ludogorets II

1.84

Tsarsko Selo

1.91

allows per match

Ludogorets II

1.05

Tsarsko Selo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw

64%

Ludogorets II or Tsarsko Selo

76%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

61%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

19%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

79%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

46%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

20%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

77%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

43%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

52%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.91 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ludogorets II scores more

39%

level

24%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

36%

Ludogorets II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

47'

48'

57'

62'

G. Minchev← K. Vasilev

67'

G. HashevOwn goal

72'

G. Netov← A. Georgiev

75'

S. Dikov

78'

Preslav Milenov Petrov← D. Aleksandrov

80'

G. Korudzhiev← P. Petkov

86'

A. Dimitrov← S. Kovachev

Ludogorets

Tsarsko

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Aleksandr

Manager: R. Zdravkov

57'▲E. Dost←▼D. Yankov

78'▲Preslav Milenov Petrov←▼D. Aleksandrov

86'▲A. Dimitrov←▼S. Kovachev

Ludogorets II substitutes

DostPetrovDimitrovDamyanovKitovKovachevYunuz

Manager: V. Velikov

62'▲G. Minchev←▼K. Vasilev

72'▲G. Netov←▼A. Georgiev

80'▲G. Korudzhiev←▼P. Petkov

Tsarsko Selo substitutes

MinchevNetovKorudzhievPetkovMinkovDimovZdravkov

Match Recap: Ludogorets II vs Tsarsko Selo

Ludogorets II beat Tsarsko Selo 3-2 in Second League on April 7, 2018.

Goals: B. Katsarov (14'), Lucas Sasha (47'), D. Aleksandrov (48'), G. Hashev (67' o.g.), S. Dikov (75').

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets (Razgrad).

Ludogorets II vs Tsarsko Selo — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ludogorets II vs Tsarsko Selo