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Tsarsko Selo vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
4 – 0
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
9/21/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tsarsko Selo63%
×Draw21%
Ludogorets II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.96
Ludogorets II
0.86

Tsarsko Selo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.53
Ludogorets II
0.92

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.80
Ludogorets II
1.40

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Ludogorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
84%
Tsarsko Selo or Ludogorets II
79%
Draw or Ludogorets II
37%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
38%
Ludogorets II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
86%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
58%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
31%
Ludogorets II 1+ goals
58%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
21%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
80%
Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.53 + Ludogorets II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ludogorets II attack 0.92 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
63%
level
21%
Ludogorets II scores more
16%

Tsarsko Selo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Ludogorets II

Tsarsko Selo beat Ludogorets II 4-0 in Second League on September 21, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).