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Tres Cantos vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tres Cantos38%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Cantos
1.27
RSD Alcalá
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tres Cantos
1.35
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Tres Cantos
1.20
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw
65%
Tres Cantos or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
62%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+
17%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals
72%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
36%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
14%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
70%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
34%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
52%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tres Cantos scores more
38%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
35%

Tres Cantos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tres Cantos 0 – 1 RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Tres Cantos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.