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RSD Alcalá vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
3/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

RSD Alcalá54%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.65
Tres Cantos
0.95

RSD Alcalá creates 74% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 71 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
78%
RSD Alcalá or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
46%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
29%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
81%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
49%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
23%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
61%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
25%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
71%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
54%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
22%

RSD Alcalá at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 1–0 Tres Cantos

RSD Alcalá beat Tres Cantos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.