Tres Cantos 0–0 Rayo Vallecano II: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Vallecano II

4/3/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tres Cantos41%

×Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.28

Tres Cantos

1.44

Rayo Vallecano II

1.28

Tres Cantos creates 13% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 97 away

1.35

creates per match

1.36

1.20

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Rayo Vallecano II

1.36

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Rayo Vallecano II

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

66%

Tres Cantos or Rayo Vallecano II

74%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano II

59%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

19%

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

76%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

42%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

18%

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

72%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

37%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

55%

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

41%

level

26%

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

34%

Tres Cantos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs Rayo Vallecano II

Tres Cantos and Rayo Vallecano II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.

Tres Cantos vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs Rayo Vallecano II