Rayo Vallecano II 3–1 Tres Cantos: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tres Cantos

11/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II50%

×Draw24%

Tres Cantos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchTres Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.19

Rayo Vallecano II

1.75

Tres Cantos

1.19

Rayo Vallecano II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 71 away

1.76

creates per match

1.03

1.35

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Tres Cantos

1.03

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Tres Cantos

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Tres Cantos →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

74%

Rayo Vallecano II or Tres Cantos

76%

Draw or Tres Cantos

50%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

27%

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

83%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

52%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

25%

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

70%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

33%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

66%

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

50%

level

24%

Tres Cantos scores more

26%

Rayo Vallecano II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Tres Cantos

Rayo Vallecano II beat Tres Cantos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Tres Cantos