Tres Cantos 0–0 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Madrid 2021 FP

1/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tres Cantos40%

×Draw26%

Madrid 2021 FP34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

Tres Cantos

1.35

Madrid 2021 FP

1.23

Tres Cantos creates 10% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

1.26

1.20

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

66%

Tres Cantos or Madrid 2021 FP

74%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

60%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

18%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

74%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

39%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

15%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

71%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

35%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

54%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

40%

level

26%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

34%

Tres Cantos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 0–0 Madrid 2021 FP

Tres Cantos and Madrid 2021 FP drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 26, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.

Tres Cantos vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 0–0 Madrid 2021 FP