Madrid 2021 FP 1–1 Tres Cantos: Result & Stats

Madrid 2021 FP

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tres Cantos

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP46%

×Draw25%

Tres Cantos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid 2021 FPExpected goals in this matchTres Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Madrid 2021 FP

1.56

Tres Cantos

1.19

Madrid 2021 FP creates 31% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 71 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

1.34

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.37

Tres Cantos

1.03

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

Tres Cantos

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Tres Cantos →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw

71%

Madrid 2021 FP or Tres Cantos

75%

Draw or Tres Cantos

54%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

23%

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

79%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

46%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

21%

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

70%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

33%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

61%

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

46%

level

25%

Tres Cantos scores more

29%

Madrid 2021 FP at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Madrid 2021 FP 1–1 Tres Cantos

Madrid 2021 FP and Tres Cantos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Aldehuela in Fuenlabrada.

Madrid 2021 FP vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Madrid 2021 FP 1–1 Tres Cantos