Tres Cantos 3–0 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Getafe II

Adri Bravo 73', 50'

Carlos Cerezo 15'

9/15/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tres Cantos35%

×Draw27%

Getafe II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.25

Tres Cantos

1.18

Getafe II

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Getafe II

1.29

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Getafe II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Getafe II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

62%

Tres Cantos or Getafe II

73%

Draw or Getafe II

65%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

14%

Getafe II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

69%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

33%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

12%

Getafe II 1+ goals

71%

Getafe II 2+ goals

36%

Getafe II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

48%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

35%

level

27%

Getafe II scores more

38%

Getafe II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Carlos Cerezo

46'

Jorge de Prada← B. El Haddad

50'

Adri Bravo

52'

Mario Presa← T. Rossi

52'

Jorge Delgado← M. Niang

52'

César Llopis← John Patrick

52'

Diego López← Alejandro Rojas

62'

Totti← Iván Sánchez

69'

Cristian Parra← Gonzalo

69'

Chupi← Javi Redondo

73'

Adri Bravo

77'

Adrián Medina← Adri Bravo

85'

Álvaro← Nicolás Cañizares

Tres

Getafe

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▼

▼

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▼

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⚽

⚽2

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Manager: Chema

46'▲Jorge de Prada←▼B. El Haddad

69'▲Cristian Parra←▼Gonzalo

69'▲Chupi←▼Javi Redondo

77'▲Adrián Medina←▼Adri Bravo

85'▲Álvaro←▼Nicolás Cañizares

Tres Cantos substitutes

PradaParraChupiMedinaÁlvaro

Manager: Iván Ruiz

52'▲Mario Presa←▼T. Rossi

52'▲Jorge Delgado←▼M. Niang

52'▲César Llopis←▼John Patrick

52'▲Diego López←▼Alejandro Rojas

62'▲Totti←▼Iván Sánchez

Getafe II substitutes

PresaDelgadoLlopisLópezTotti