Getafe II 3–2 Tres Cantos: Result & Stats

Getafe II

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tres Cantos

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Getafe II54%

×Draw24%

Tres Cantos22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Getafe IIExpected goals in this matchTres Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.02

Getafe II

1.73

Tres Cantos

1.02

Getafe II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 71 away

1.71

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Getafe II

1.71

Tres Cantos

1.03

allows per match

Getafe II

1.00

Tres Cantos

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Tres Cantos →

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw

78%

Getafe II or Tres Cantos

76%

Draw or Tres Cantos

46%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+

30%

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

82%

Getafe II 2+ goals

52%

Getafe II 3+ goals

25%

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

64%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

27%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)

71%

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Getafe II scores more

54%

level

24%

Tres Cantos scores more

22%

Getafe II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff