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Tres Cantos vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Tres Cantos51%
×Draw25%
El Álamo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Cantos
1.59
El Álamo
1.02

Tres Cantos creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tres Cantos
1.35
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Tres Cantos
1.20
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw
76%
Tres Cantos or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
49%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+
26%
El Álamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals
80%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
47%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
21%
El Álamo 1+ goals
64%
El Álamo 2+ goals
27%
El Álamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
68%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.59

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tres Cantos scores more
51%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
24%

Tres Cantos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs El Álamo

Tres Cantos beat El Álamo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.