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El Álamo vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
2/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

El Álamo46%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.59
Tres Cantos
1.20

El Álamo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 71 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
71%
El Álamo or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
54%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
24%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
80%
El Álamo 2+ goals
47%
El Álamo 3+ goals
21%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
70%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
34%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
62%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

El Álamo scores more
46%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
29%

El Álamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Álamo vs Tres Cantos

Tres Cantos beat El Álamo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.