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Tres Cantos vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tres Cantos38%
×Draw28%
Collado Villalba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Cantos
1.20
Collado Villalba
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 49 away

creates per match

Tres Cantos
1.35
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Tres Cantos
1.20
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw
66%
Tres Cantos or Collado Villalba
72%
Draw or Collado Villalba
62%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+
16%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals
70%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
34%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
12%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
67%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
30%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
53%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tres Cantos scores more
38%
level
28%
Collado Villalba scores more
34%

Tres Cantos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 1–3 Collado Villalba

Collado Villalba beat Tres Cantos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.