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Collado Villalba vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba43%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.55
Tres Cantos
1.29

Collado Villalba creates 20% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 71 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
68%
Collado Villalba or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
57%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
22%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
79%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
46%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
20%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
72%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
37%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
58%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
43%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
32%

Collado Villalba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Collado Villalba 2–0 Tres Cantos

Collado Villalba beat Tres Cantos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.