Tres Cantos 1–0 Alcobendas Sport: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcobendas Sport

Álex Martínez 63'

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tres Cantos39%

×Draw27%

Alcobendas Sport35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchAlcobendas Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Tres Cantos

1.33

Alcobendas Sport

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 117 away

1.35

creates per match

1.31

1.20

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Alcobendas Sport

1.31

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Alcobendas Sport →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

65%

Tres Cantos or Alcobendas Sport

73%

Draw or Alcobendas Sport

61%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

17%

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

74%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

38%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

15%

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

71%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

36%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

53%

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

39%

level

27%

Alcobendas Sport scores more

35%

Tres Cantos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Gerardo← Arroyo

60'

Gabri Salazar← D. Hyjek

60'

Guille Nieto← David Fernández

60'

Migallón← J. Escalante

60'

Nacho Maganto← Juan Martínez

63'

Álex Martínez

75'

Aitor Lorá← Álex Martínez

75'

A. Arkine← Febre

75'

Javier Collado← Gonzalo de la Morena

89'

Álex← José Antonio

Tres

Alcobendas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

▼

Morena

Manager: David Muñoz

75'▲Aitor Lorá←▼Álex Martínez

75'▲A. Arkine←▼Febre

75'▲Javier Collado←▼Gonzalo de la Morena

89'▲Álex←▼José Antonio

Tres Cantos substitutes

LoráArkineColladoÁlex

Manager: Gonzalo Cuenca

60'▲Gerardo←▼Arroyo

60'▲Gabri Salazar←▼D. Hyjek

60'▲Guille Nieto←▼David Fernández

60'▲Migallón←▼J. Escalante

60'▲Nacho Maganto←▼Juan Martínez

Alcobendas Sport substitutes

GerardoSalazarNietoMigallónMaganto