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Alcobendas Sport vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
2/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Alcobendas Sport46%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.52
Tres Cantos
1.16

Alcobendas Sport creates 31% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 71 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
71%
Alcobendas Sport or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
54%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
23%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
78%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
45%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
20%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
69%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
32%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
61%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
46%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
29%

Alcobendas Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcobendas Sport 0 – 2 Tres Cantos

Tres Cantos beat Alcobendas Sport 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.