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Trenčín W vs Poprad W — I Liga - Women 2020

Trenčín W
Trenčín W
CANC
12:30
Poprad W
Poprad W
10/18/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 7Areál This Is my sen-akademy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trenčín W80%
×Draw11%
Poprad W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trenčín W
3.63
Poprad W
1.19

Trenčín W creates 205% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 3 away

creates per match

Trenčín W
1.93
Poprad W
0.00

allows per match

Trenčín W
2.37
Poprad W
5.33

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par
Poprad W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

Poprad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw
91%
Trenčín W or Poprad W
89%
Draw or Poprad W
20%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+
63%
Poprad W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals
97%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
87%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
68%
Poprad W 1+ goals
70%
Poprad W 2+ goals
33%
Poprad W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)
90%
Poprad W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

Poprad W away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + Poprad W defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.63

Poprad W attack 0.00 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Trenčín W scores more
80%
level
11%
Poprad W scores more
9%

Trenčín W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trenčín W vs Poprad W — Match Preview

Trenčín W face Poprad W on October 18, 2020 in this I Liga - Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Trenčín W host Poprad W at Areál This Is my sen-akademy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.