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Poprad W vs Trenčín W — I Liga - Women 2020

Poprad W
Poprad W
CANC
13:00
Trenčín W
Trenčín W
5/22/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 16Futbalový štadión Spišská Teplica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W17%
×Draw14%
Trenčín W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad W
1.94
Trenčín W
3.82

Trenčín W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 69 away

creates per match

Poprad W
0.33
Trenčín W
1.64

allows per match

Poprad W
6.00
Trenčín W
3.55

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par
Trenčín W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Trenčín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw
31%
Poprad W or Trenčín W
86%
Draw or Trenčín W
83%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+
8%
Trenčín W wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals
86%
Poprad W 2+ goals
58%
Poprad W 3+ goals
30%
Trenčín W 1+ goals
98%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
88%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)
20%
Trenčín W (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Trenčín W away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Trenčín W defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Trenčín W attack 1.64 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Poprad W scores more
17%
level
14%
Trenčín W scores more
69%

Trenčín W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poprad W host Trenčín W

May 22, 2021: Poprad W take on Trenčín W in I Liga - Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poprad W host Trenčín W at Futbalový štadión Spišská Teplica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.