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Trenčín W vs GFC Topoľčany W — I Liga - Women 2020

Trenčín W
Trenčín W
FT
3 – 0
GFC Topoľčany W
GFC Topoľčany W
5/27/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 8Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Trenčín W61%
×Draw17%
GFC Topoľčany W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trenčín W
2.96
GFC Topoľčany W
1.78

Trenčín W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Trenčín W
1.93
GFC Topoľčany W
1.19

allows per match

Trenčín W
2.37
GFC Topoľčany W
4.00

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par
GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw
78%
Trenčín W or GFC Topoľčany W
83%
Draw or GFC Topoľčany W
39%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+
41%
GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals
95%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
79%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
55%
GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals
83%
GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals
53%
GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)
73%
GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Trenčín W scores more
61%
level
17%
GFC Topoľčany W scores more
22%

Trenčín W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Trenčín W 3–0 GFC Topoľčany W

Trenčín W beat GFC Topoľčany W 3-0 in I Liga - Women on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti in Trenčín.