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GFC Topoľčany W vs Trenčín W — I Liga - Women 2020

GFC Topoľčany W
GFC Topoľčany W
FT
3 – 1
Trenčín W
Trenčín W
11/22/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 12Futbalový štadión Spartak - UT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W58%
×Draw19%
Trenčín W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFC Topoľčany W
2.58
Trenčín W
1.59

GFC Topoľčany W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W
1.62
Trenčín W
1.64

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W
1.54
Trenčín W
3.55

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par
Trenčín W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Trenčín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw
77%
GFC Topoľčany W or Trenčín W
81%
Draw or Trenčín W
42%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+
38%
Trenčín W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals
92%
GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals
72%
GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals
47%
Trenčín W 1+ goals
80%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
47%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)
72%
Trenčín W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Trenčín W away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Trenčín W defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 2.58

Trenčín W attack 1.64 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more
58%
level
19%
Trenčín W scores more
23%

GFC Topoľčany W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "GFC Topoľčany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: GFC Topoľčany W 3–1 Trenčín W

GFC Topoľčany W beat Trenčín W 3-1 in I Liga - Women on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Spartak - UT in Bánovce nad Bebravou.